Expert wants Nova Scotians to be prepared for hurricane season

HALIFAX, N.S. — A hurricane expert hopes Nova Scotians will prepare better for storms as the active months of hurricane season approach.

After historic wildfires and flooding in the province this year, Dr. Chris Fogarty, who works with the Canadian Hurricane Centre, hopes residents have had their eyes opened to the potential damage that extreme weather can cause.

“The point that we’re trying to get across to people is: don’t wait for this storm to be in the news, right?” he said in an interview. “It’s through a direct experience with their property or a vulnerability that they might have … so now people are thinking ‘hey, if this happens again, what am I going to do?’”

The recent flooding and heavy rains have also caused the water table to rise. With much soil in the province becoming saturated, there is little capacity for the ground to absorb more water.

As a result, Fogarty said that ‘wet’ hurricanes will be a greater concern in the coming months.

The chance of an above average Atlantic hurricane season was raised from 30 per cent to 60 per cent, according to a statement released on Thursday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

The Atlantic hurricane season usually lasts from June 1 to November 30, with most named storms forming in August, September, and October when ocean temperatures are at their warmest.

Fogarty said the possible increase in storms is primarily caused by the North Atlantic Ocean seeing some of the highest surface temperatures ever recorded. These warmer temperatures are a breeding ground for hurricanes and tropical cyclones, and warmer temperatures farther north means that tropical systems could potentially last longer at higher latitudes.

El Nino, a weather pattern that affects ocean surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, will most likely contribute to hurricane season in a different way, according to Fogarty.

While the shifting temperatures are far off in the Pacific, they have effects on weather throughout the world. The effect on hurricanes is a vertical wind force that weakens developing tropical storms from the upper atmosphere.

“It’s complex,” Fogarty said.

“You can have 40-degree ocean water temperatures, but you’re not going to get a category five hurricane over that when you’ve got these high upper-level winds created by El Nino.”

So, while the warmer-than-average waters increase the chances of tropical storms forming, they won’t necessarily result in stronger or more vicious storms.