Forecast for the next 5 years? Record-breakingly hot, UN weather agency says

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued a stark warning that there is a high likelihood of setting a new heat record within the next five years. The UN weather agency also predicts that average temperatures will surpass the lower limit set by the Paris Agreement on climate change during this time period. Additionally, the Arctic is warming at a rate more than three times faster than the global average, leading to more extreme weather events.

According to the WMO, every fraction of a degree of warming contributes to the intensification of heatwaves, extreme rainfall, droughts, melting ice sheets, rising sea levels, and other climate-related impacts. From now until the end of 2029, global temperatures are expected to be between 1.2°C and 1.9°C higher than pre-industrial levels. This forecast indicates a worrisome trend towards continued warming and its associated consequences.

There is an 80% probability that at least one of the next five years will experience record heat, with a 70% chance of surpassing the 1.5°C mark above pre-industrial levels. Last year, which was the hottest on record, saw the first breach of the lower target set by the Paris Agreement. This agreement aims to limit global warming to 1.5°C while striving to keep it below 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels.

The Arctic region is particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, with temperatures projected to rise significantly in the coming years. This accelerated warming is expected to lead to increased ice melt in the Arctic and northwest Pacific Ocean. The WMO report highlights that Arctic warming is predicted to be more than three times the global average, at 2.4°C above the most recent 30-year baseline period.

In addition to the Arctic, other regions are also at risk of experiencing extreme weather patterns. Above-average rainfall is forecasted in areas such as the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska, and northern Siberia between 2025 and 2029. Conversely, drier-than-average conditions are expected over the Amazon region during the same period.

Overall, global temperatures are projected to remain at or near record levels throughout the rest of the decade. This alarming trend underscores the urgent need for collective action to address climate change and mitigate its impacts. As we face the challenges of a warming planet, it is crucial to prioritize sustainability and resilience in our efforts to combat climate change.