Iran’s IRGC faces uncertain future after devastating blows by the US and Israel

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has long been a powerful and feared force within Iran. Founded in the aftermath of the 1979 revolution, the IRGC was initially created to protect and spread the values of the Islamic Republic, often resorting to violence to achieve its goals. Over the years, the IRGC has evolved, gaining legitimacy through various means such as the overthrow of the Shah, the Iran-Iraq War, and the narrative of an eternal struggle with the U.S. and Israel.

However, recent military setbacks have left the IRGC at a turning point. According to experts like Dr. Afshon Ostovar and Behnam Ben Taleblu, the IRGC’s efforts to build a military deterrent at home and expand regionally through proxies have essentially collapsed. The recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in Iran have significantly impacted the IRGC’s power and influence.

The IRGC’s origin reflects a deep mistrust of Iran’s traditional military, with the group being created as a parallel and ideological military force due to clerical skepticism in the national army. Today, the IRGC is deeply intertwined with the clerical elite, treating Iran as a springboard to export their revolution.

Despite suffering strategic defeats in recent years, the IRGC is unlikely to turn against the regime. While the group may shift its focus more inward, relying on domestic repression rather than external terror, experts believe that the IRGC will remain loyal to the regime for a combination of ideological and material reasons.

Looking ahead, Iran may become more insular and autocratic, resembling North Korea more than its current state. While regime collapse is always a possibility, autocracies like Iran have shown resilience in the face of challenges. The IRGC’s younger cadre, while less religious, is still hardline and may continue to pursue a confrontational approach with the U.S. and Israel.

Despite recent setbacks, the IRGC’s grip on power remains strong, wielding political, economic, and military influence in Iranian policy. The future of the IRGC and its role within Iran’s regime will depend on how the next generation of Guardsmen choose to wield their influence.