Mayor, MP say crossed fingers only answer so far for storm threat to Chignecto Isthmus infrastructure

Fingers crossed.

“I hate to say it but for the storm this weekend, that’s about all we can do,” Amherst Mayor David Kogon said of the potential for hurricane Lee to flood the Chignecto Isthmus transportation and telecommunications infrastructure that connects Nova Scotia to the rest of Canada.

Kogon, a longtime practising doctor in the region, would likely welcome a second opinion.

“That’s all we can do,” is to hope for the best, said Stephen Ellis, the Conservative MP for Cumberland-Colchester who too has logged a long career as a family and military physician.

Hurricane Lee is expected to make landfall in Atlantic Canada sometime Saturday but its arrival will be preceded by wind and rain Friday night, with areas of southwestern Nova Scotia and much of New Brunswick likely to experience sustained winds of 60 kilometres per hour and gusts of 90 to 120 kilometres in exposed coastal areas.

The storm’s trajectory remains forecast to pass through the isthmus, the narrow strip of land that physically connects Nova Scotia and New Brunswick and separates the waters of the Bay of Fundy from the Northumberland Strait. A U.S. National Hurricane Centre map from earlier in the week showed a potential for Fundy storm surges well above three metres in the isthmus area.

Moon smiling

“We are close to the upper arm of the Bay of Fundy,” Kogon said. “The track of this storm is showing it is going to bring water up the Bay of Fundy. That’s more of a threat. The good part of it is that it is not coincidental with a full moon and a tide that is exceptionally high, which is what we really fear. That’s the combination that will definitely flood the marsh. The phase of the moon is working in our favour but the direction of the storm is not.”

Both Kogon and Ellis referred to some similarities to the deadly and devastating Saxby Gale of October 1869 that caused extensive destruction to port facilities and communities along Fundy communities in Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Maine.

“The eerie similarity as to the trajectory of the Saxby Gale of 1869 is very interesting,” Ellis said. “That being said, of course, there is not going to be a full moon with the incredibly high tides they had at that time. But the similarity is concerning.”

Ellis said the concern about Fundy storm surges affecting the highway, rail and power infrastructure along the isthmus and the towns of Amherst and Sackville, N.B., is confounded by what he says is the “continued inability of the federal government to realize that the necessary infrastructure for connecting Canada to Nova Scotia” exists there.

“That the biggest difficulty,” he said.

Kogon said hurricane Fiona last year “put the fear of God in all of us in our region because we realized how damaging these hurricanes can be, that they are getting more frequent and they are getting more severe.”

“Now hurricane Lee is just another example of that. The very next year you’ve got the next storm of a lifetime one year after the previous storm of a lifetime. We know that something has to happen to protect our area and this isn’t just to protect our area. The Port of Halifax would be finished if the isthmus floods, it would be over. Somebody mentioned to me that Nova Scotia would run out of food in about five days if that isthmus floods and is impassable for any length of time. It’s a threat not just to here locally, but it’s a huge threat to the entire province and in fact the entire region.”

$50-million trade

On average, trade through the isthmus has been reported to be $50 million a day or $32 billion a year. 

The supply chain carries many essential goods, including food, with Nova Scotia importing over 90 per cent of the food it consumes.

The calls for upgrading the dike system, constructed by the Acadians in the 17th century and deteriorating under inadequate maintenance, have been frequent and loud over the past several years.

An engineering study presented in March 2022 provided three best options to enhance the dikes and the marshlands they protect. 

The governments of Nova Scotia and New Brunswick continue to haggle with the federal government about who should pay for the projected $650-million project that is expected to take 10 years to complete.

Kevin Bekkers, an engineer with the resource sustainability branch of the Nova Scotia Agriculture Department, told The Chronicle Herald in late July that a number of people from Nova Scotia and New Brunswick are engaged in reviewing the engineering feasibility report and working to create a team to get mobilized to start the project.

“The project is over a 10-year timeframe and people are concerned about what happens if we get a storm event today, are we going to be able to defend it,” Bekkers said. “That’s a good question that both provinces are considering and looking at.”

He said the two provinces are in the process of completing a vulnerability assessment of the current infrastructure and ways to mitigate any threats. 

“An example is a hurricane or a storm (of that magnitude) and seeing if there is an alternate route for the highway and coming up with a preparedness plan for that and making sure that those communities are protected to the maximum extent possible.”

Bekkers said if there are opportunities to do some upgrades or changes to help mitigate such an occurrence over the next 10 years while the upgraded infrastructure is being built, “that’s currently what we’re looking at.”

Neither Kogon nor Ellis say they are aware of any current work to mitigate immediate threats to the isthmus infrastructure while the long-term project is in the planning stages.

Bekkers said the majority of the capital spent and the construction work done on the 10-year project will be over a six-year period, years four to 10, with the initial four years being dedicated to planning and regulatory approvals, meetings with stakeholders and consultations with First Nations.

“My political answer is why can’t we get things done in this country,” Ellis said. “Why does it have to be 10 years? … Why can’t we get major infrastructure projects built, why can’t we do anything. That’s the biggest concern that I have. It’s 10 years, and then it becomes 15 years and that seems to have become acceptable these days.

“This project needs to get done. There is an urgency about it. Hurricane season is not over until Nov. 30, kind of officially. That means that there is a great chance there is going to be more. You and I will be talking about this again. Well, we missed it with hurricane Lee, hurricane Xanadu is coming and what are we going to do now. This one is worse and nothing’s been done.”

Urgency understood

Kogon said the municipalities are forced to play an advocacy role only.

“The provincial governments, New Brunwwick and Nova Scotia, and the federal government, that’s where the money is to do whatever ultimately becomes the technical fix,” Kogon said. “We have to continue to try to advocate and encourage them to move along. I have been told that the planning at the bureaucratic, not the political level, is still ongoing and that is encouraging.”

Bekkers said the urgency is understood. 

“Both provinces are responding to this with the urgency it deserves and we want to make sure that we are collecting that information and making good sound decisions because we are putting in a solution that will have a 75-year life at a minimum and you don’t want to rush a large project like that and create opportunities for failure.”

After announcing a modest cabinet shuffle Thursday, Premier Tim Houston said the discussion is ongoing with the federal government about who will pay for the project. 

“That has not in any way impacted, impeded, slowed down in any way discussions about the long-term solutions for the isthmus,” he said. “The engineering work is still happening. The discussions and analysis of the appropriate long-term fix for the isthmus are well along the path.”