Monday may have set a global record for hottest day on record. Tuesday it broke

According to scientists at the University of Maine of the Climate Reanalyzer Project.

For two consecutive days, the global average temperature spiked into unknown territory. After scientists talked about Monday’s dramatic heat, Tuesday rose even hotter by 0.17C, which is a huge temperature jump in terms of global averages and records.

The same University of Maine climate calculator – based on satellite data and computer simulations – predicts a similar temperature for Wednesday that would be on record, with the Antarctic average a whopping 4.5 C warmer than the 1979-2000 average.

High temperature records were surpassed on July 3 and 4 in Quebec and northwestern Canada and Peru. Cities across the U.S. from Medford, Oregon to Tampa, are hovering at record highs, said Zack Taylor, a meteorologist with the U.S. National Weather Service. Beijing last week reported nine consecutive days when temperatures exceeded 35C.

‘Stop it quickly’

“The increasing warming of our planet due to the use of fossil fuels is not unexpected; after all, it was predicted as far back as the 19th century,” says climate scientist Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Research in Germany. “But it’s dangerous for us humans and for the ecosystems we depend on. We need to end it quickly.”

The daily but tentative and unofficial heat record comes after months of “truly unreal meteorology and climate statistics for the year,” such as off-the-chart record heat in the North Atlantic, record low sea ice in Antarctica and a rapidly strengthening El Niño , said Prof. Dr. Jason Furtado, meteorology at the University of Oklahoma.

This global record is not quite the type regularly used by gold standard climate measurement institutions such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association. But it is an indication that climate change is reaching uncharted territory. It legitimately records global warming, and NOAA will consider these numbers when it makes its official record calculations, said Deke Arndt, director of the National Center for Environmental Information, a division of NOAA.

“In the climate assessment community, I don’t think we would assign the kind of gravitas to a one-day observation the way we would a month or a year,” Arndt said. Scientists generally use much longer measurements — months, years, decades — to track global warming. In addition, this tentative warmest day record is based on data dating back only to 1979, the beginning of satellite record keeping, while NOAA’s data goes back to 1880.

But Arndt said we would never get close to record warm days unless we are in “a warm part of what is likely to be a very warm era,” driven by greenhouse gas emissions and the onset of a “robust” El Nino. An El Niño is a temporary natural warming of parts of the central Pacific Ocean that changes global weather and makes the planet hotter overall.

Human-induced climate change is like an upward escalator for global temperatures, and El Niño is like jumping up while standing on that escalator, Arndt said.

On Tuesday, the average global temperature peaked at 17.18 C, according to the University of Maine’s Climate Reanalyzer, a common tool climate scientists often use to get a true picture of the state of the world. Tuesday’s temperature was nearly a full degree Celsius higher than the 1979-2000 average, which itself is warmer than 20th and 19th century averages.

The reanalyzer is based on a NOAA computer simulation intended for predictions using satellite data. It is not based on reported sightings from the ground. So this unofficial record is basically using a weather tool designed for forecasting, not tracking.

The global daily average temperature for July 3 was 17.01 degrees Celsius. This average temperature may not seem that hot, but it is the first time in the 44 years of this data set that the temperature has exceeded 17 C and then even higher.

“A record like this is further evidence for the now massively supported thesis that global warming is pushing us into a hotter future,” said Stanford University climate scientist Chris Field, who was not part of the calculations.

Heat warnings

Hotter global average temperatures are translating into brutal conditions for people around the world.

In Canada, heat warnings were in effect for parts of BC, the Northwest Territories, Ontario and Quebec on Wednesday.

In the U.S., heat warnings are in effect this week for more than 30 million people in parts of western Oregon, the interior of far northern California, central New Mexico, Texas, Florida and the coastal regions of Carolina, among others, according to the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center. Excessive heat warnings continue in southern Arizona and California, it said.

When the heat peaks, people suffer health effects.

“Those higher temperatures that happen when we get hotter than normal conditions? People aren’t used to that. Their bodies aren’t used to that,” said Erinanne Saffell, the Arizona state climatologist and an expert in extreme weather and climate events.

Saffell said the risk is already high for young and old, who are vulnerable to heat even under normal conditions.

“It’s important to understand who may be at risk, make sure people are hydrated, stay cool and don’t exercise outside, and take care of those around you who may also be at risk,” she said. .