New research reveals national shift toward Republican Party

Republicans outperformed Democrats on voter registration in four key battleground states between the 2020 and 2024 presidential elections, a new study by the American Association of Political Consultants (AAPC) has revealed. The bipartisan analysis, conducted in collaboration with Data Trust and Target Smart, sheds light on a national shift in voter registration towards the Republican Party.

Larry Huynh, Democrat AAPC Board President, emphasized the importance of a bipartisan analysis in challenging conventional wisdoms. The data clearly showed that Democrats were caught off guard with voter registration and turnout efforts, failing to mount a compelling counter-effort. Huynh urged a deeper dive into voter registration and turnout operations to learn from this setback.

The research findings were unveiled at the 2025 Pollie Awards in Colorado Springs, Colo. Kyle Roberts, incoming Republican AAPC Board President, commended the Trump campaign and the Republican Party for their success in voter registration and turnout efforts. He emphasized the need to build on these achievements for future elections.

The study revealed a decrease in the share of registered Democrat voters in all four battleground states analyzed, with an increase in registered unaffiliated and Republican voters. Unaffiliated voters accounted for the largest electoral increase in three out of the four states, while Democrats experienced the largest drop in electoral numbers.

Voter turnout across party lines declined in three out of the four battleground states, with Democrats experiencing a greater drop compared to Republicans. However, the difference was minimal, except in Arizona. The increase in Republican registration, turnout, and electoral growth was consistent across demographic groups, including Black, Hispanic, and rural voters.

Former President Trump’s victory in all seven battleground states in 2024, along with Republican control of the House of Representatives and the Senate, underscored the party’s success. The economy and immigration were key issues, with Trump tying inflation to President Biden’s administration and promising to secure the border on his first day in office.

As AAPC analyzes Republicans’ success with swing state voters, a new book detailing the alleged cover-up of Biden’s cognitive decline has put Democrats under scrutiny. While commentators focus on Democratic losses in 2024, the study highlights the Republican Party’s strategic approach to voter registration and turnout.

The Republican National Committee’s initiatives, such as opening offices for Black and Latino Americans for Trump, and launching the “Protect the Vote” campaign on election integrity, played a crucial role in mobilizing supporters. With over 160,000 volunteers and a coalition of voters built on election distrust, Republicans were able to secure a win in 2024.

In conclusion, the AAPC study provides valuable insights into the factors contributing to Republicans’ success in voter registration and turnout. By learning from these findings, both parties can enhance their strategies for future elections.