Xi’s absence from BRICS Summit sparks speculation about China’s influence

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s decision not to attend the BRICS Summit in Brazil has raised questions about the internal political dynamics in China and the cohesion of the BRICS alliance. This marks the first time that Xi has missed this gathering of major emerging economies, sparking speculation about the reasons behind his absence.

While China’s official explanation cited a scheduling conflict and Xi’s prior meeting with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva earlier this year, experts are skeptical of these reasons. Gordon Chang, a U.S.-China relations expert, believes that Xi’s absence signifies potential turbulence at home, with signs indicating that he may have lost control of the military and that civilian rivals are asserting power.

Bryan Burack of the Heritage Foundation also sees Xi’s absence as a reflection of deeper issues within the BRICS alliance. He suggests that countries like Brazil and Indonesia imposing tariffs on China over trade practices may have widened rifts within the group. Burack highlights China’s harmful trade policies as a factor contributing to tensions within BRICS.

The rising tensions between China and India, as well as global trade pressures, may have also played a role in Xi’s decision to skip the summit. Burack notes that the longstanding conflict between China and India could keep tensions high and deter Xi from attending the gathering where Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to play a prominent role.

Despite its significant economic footprint, the BRICS alliance remains ideologically and strategically fragmented. Burack describes the group as a collection of countries that have conflicting interests and lack real unity. While there have been discussions about challenging the dominance of the U.S. dollar through alternative payment systems and a potential BRICS currency, experts caution against overestimating this threat.

While some view BRICS as a long-term challenge to U.S. influence, others believe that the alliance’s internal contradictions and divergent interests may limit its ability to pose a significant threat. The inclusion of India in BRICS is seen as a factor that could prevent the bloc from becoming an anti-Western alliance.

Xi’s absence from the summit has been interpreted differently by analysts. While some view it as a sign of instability in Beijing, others see it as a demonstration of China’s dominance and Xi’s confidence to delegate responsibilities. The evolving nature of BRICS and the questions surrounding Xi’s absence will be key topics of discussion at the summit in Brazil.