Asteroid’s chance of hitting Earth in 2032 not high after all

New observations of a small asteroid discovered in December have provided astronomers with more data to assess the risk of it colliding with Earth. Initially, the asteroid known as 2024 YR4 was believed to have a three per cent chance of impact in 2032, making it the highest probability ever recorded for such an object. However, recent observations from the European Southern Observatory’s Very Large Telescope and other facilities have significantly reduced this risk.

The new data has lowered the impact probability to 0.001 per cent, according to the European Space Agency, and 0.004 per cent, as reported by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Olivier Hainaut, an astronomer with the European Southern Observatory, stated that the risk of the asteroid striking Earth is now almost zero.

Despite the decreased likelihood of a collision with Earth, NASA has calculated a 1.7 per cent chance of the asteroid hitting the moon. The asteroid, measuring between 40 to 90 metres in width, poses a potential threat due to its size. Hainaut explained that an impact by an asteroid of this size could have devastating consequences, with an energy equivalent to the Hiroshima bomb.

Asteroid impacts have occurred throughout Earth’s history, with catastrophic results. For instance, the impact of a much larger asteroid off the coast of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula 66 million years ago led to the extinction of three-quarters of the world’s species, including the dinosaurs. To prepare for potential asteroid threats, NASA conducted a planetary defense mission in 2022 by redirecting the trajectory of the asteroid Dimorphos using its DART spacecraft.

Astronomers continue to study asteroids to better understand their composition and potential impact on Earth. NASA’s OSIRIS-REx spacecraft collected samples from the asteroid Bennu in 2020, revealing chemical building blocks of life. Additionally, researchers have estimated the potential damage from a Bennu-sized asteroid striking Earth, highlighting the importance of planetary defense strategies.

As scientists gather more information about asteroids, they aim to develop effective strategies to mitigate the risks posed by these space rocks. By studying asteroids like 2024 YR4 and Bennu, researchers hope to improve our understanding of these celestial objects and enhance our ability to protect Earth from potential impacts.