U.S. forecasters predict above-normal activity for 2023 Atlantic hurricane season
HALIFAX, N.S. — Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center are now predicting an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season.
Initially predicted as near-average, the season is now expected to be busier than normal.
The change in forecast is influenced heavily by ocean conditions, notably the Atlantic’s record-high sea surface temperatures. The high temperatures are likely to counterbalance the usually limiting atmospheric conditions associated with the ongoing El Niño event.
The NOAA, a division of the U.S. National Weather Service, now estimates a 60 per cent chance of a busier-than-average season. That’s up from 30 per cent in May.
The likelihood of an average season has dropped to 25 per cent from May’s 40 per cent. Meanwhile, the chance for a quieter-than-average season sits at 15 per cent.
NOAA’s updated projections anticipate 14 to 21 named storms, with winds surpassing 63 km/h. Of these, between six and 11 could turn into hurricanes with winds over 119 km/h. Two to five of these could strengthen into major hurricanes with winds exceeding 179 km/h.
These predictions have a 70 per cent confidence level and include the five storms already recorded this season.
A below-normal wind shear forecast, slightly below-normal Atlantic trade winds and a near-or above-normal West African Monsoon were also key factors in shaping the updated seasonal forecast.
The Atlantic basin has experienced an active start to the hurricane season with five storms that have reached at least tropical storm strength, including one hurricane already.
