UBC researchers say space junk has increasing potential to disrupt air travel
Large, uncontrolled space junk reentering Earth’s atmosphere poses a significant risk to air travel, leading to potential airspace closures as a precautionary measure. A recent study conducted by three University of British Columbia (UBC) researchers sheds light on this pressing issue.
Published in Scientific Reports on Jan. 23, the paper titled “Airspace closures due to reentering space objects” highlights the growing risks and costs that the space industry imposes on the aviation sector, air crews, and passengers. Co-author Aaron Boley, an associate professor at UBC and co-director of the Outer Space Institute, emphasized the misconception that activities in orbit do not impact Earth.
Boley pointed out that the surge in flights, coupled with the increasing number of rocket and satellite components orbiting in space, heightens the likelihood of disruptive incidents affecting air travel due to unplanned reentries. While the study found that the probability of space junk reentry affecting high-density air traffic regions near major airports is relatively low at 0.8% per year, the risk escalates to 26% per year in other busy air travel zones.
Regions such as the northeastern United States, northern Europe, and major cities in the Asia-Pacific region are identified as higher risk areas. Boley emphasized that these findings represent a snapshot in time, with risks expected to rise further in the future. He highlighted that while some rocket launches involve planned reentries, most launches do not account for this in their design, leading to uncontrolled reentries.
The study underscored the potential consequences of falling space debris on ground-based entities, including airplanes. Boley noted that while the individual risk of an aircraft being hit by space debris is minimal, the global risk remains significant. He highlighted instances where orbiting satellites and rocket parts, no longer operational, gradually descend through the atmosphere, posing hazards upon reentry.
Boley cited a case from early last year, where a piece of metal support from NASA’s International Space Station caused damage to a Florida home upon reentry. The study emphasized the lethal and destructive nature of even small space debris pieces, particularly when aircraft are involved.
In light of these risks, Boley stressed the need for the space industry to adopt controlled reentries as a standard practice to mitigate potential hazards to aviation. He emphasized the importance of proper stewardship of orbital debris to prevent incidents that could endanger lives and disrupt air travel.
The study’s findings serve as a wake-up call for stakeholders to address the growing threat of uncontrolled space junk reentries and prioritize safety measures to safeguard air travel and passengers worldwide.
