Why these are the five (or six) states to watch on election night
The 2024 presidential election is shaping up to be a high-stakes battle that will ultimately be decided by the Electoral College, not the national popular vote. With Kamala Harris and Donald Trump as the top contenders, the key to victory lies in securing 270 electoral votes. Five crucial states are set to play a pivotal role in determining the outcome: Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, with Arizona potentially serving as a sixth deciding factor.
Currently, Harris holds a lead in states totaling 226 electoral votes, while Trump is favored in states worth 219 electoral votes. The battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, often referred to as the “blue wall,” present Harris with a more straightforward path to victory. Securing victories in these states would bring her exactly to the 270 mark. Polling in these states is tight, with Harris holding a slight edge in Michigan and Wisconsin, and a tie in Pennsylvania.
Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin were crucial in Joe Biden’s 2020 victory and are likely to play a significant role in the 2024 election as well. Harris is performing well among White voters in these states, which could give her an advantage over Trump. However, Trump could still potentially win one or more of these states, making North Carolina and Georgia essential backup options for Harris.
North Carolina, with its 16 electoral votes, is a highly competitive state that could tip the scales in favor of either candidate. Georgia, with 16 electoral votes as well, was won by Biden in 2020 but remains a closely contested state. Polling in North Carolina has been slightly closer than in Georgia, making it a more favorable option for Harris if she needs to secure additional electoral votes.
While Arizona and Nevada also remain important battleground states, Arizona’s 11 electoral votes may not be enough to make up for potential losses in Michigan or Pennsylvania. Nevada, with just six electoral votes, is less likely to be a deciding factor in the election.
In conclusion, the 2024 presidential election is likely to hinge on the outcomes in five key states, with the potential for a sixth state to also play a crucial role. As the candidates continue to campaign and the polls fluctuate, the importance of these battleground states cannot be understated in determining the next President of the United States.
