Hurricane Lee looking more likely to impact the Maritimes

Hurricane Lee continues to be a major hurricane tracking west northwest through the tropical Atlantic.

The storm is expected to slow to a snail’s pace over the next few days, which makes forecasting a bit more difficult and leaves a bit more uncertainty than usual. 

That said, there is now fairly solid agreement that Lee will make a turn northward on Wednesday. Following that turn, the storm will increase in forward speed, however it will begin to weaken.

By late week, the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center has the storm near Category 1 strength and continuing to weaken as it moves into the Maritimes region.

The Franklin factor

We can be thankful for Hurricane Franklin. Not only did the storm ultimately stay offshore from the Maritimes, it also churned up the waters of the Atlantic ocean as it tracked west and north of Bermuda.

That churning of the ocean helped to upwell cooler ocean temperatures from below the surface and as a result, what was warmer water a couple of weeks ago, is now below the critical 26.5 C temperature needed to fuel tropical storms.

That subtle difference in sea surface temperatures, as well as increasing wind shear, looks set to be significant in Lee’s weakening as it moves northward this week.

Lee impacts this weekend

While the details will be ironed out over the next few days, this storm is looking more and more likely to impact the Maritimes with rain, gusty winds and a possible storm surge this weekend.

Folks should be preparing for a long duration event. This storm will be moving slowly, and so the impacts are likely to last 24 to 48 hours, beginning Saturday, continuing through Sunday and lingering into Monday.

This could be problematic, especially when it comes to the winds and potential for power outages to add up. 

The storm will be quite large when it moves in and will grow larger in scale as it transitions to post-tropical. That transition will spread the impacts of rain and wind further from the centre of the storm and so it’s important not to focus too much on the direct path over the next few days.

Given the widespread anxiety in the region, I think it’s important to note that this storm will not be Fiona 2.0. The storm we saw a year ago was a historic event with many differences from the one shaping up this week.

That said, Lee is looking more likely to impact the region and folks should be preparing their property and making sure emergency kits are ready to go over the next few days.