Kashmir crisis: A new front in US-China rivalry

As tensions between India and Pakistan continue to escalate over the disputed territory of Kashmir, there are growing concerns that a localized conflict could spiral into a larger regional crisis. The involvement of China, with its close ties to Pakistan, adds an additional layer of complexity to the situation.

Experts warn that the conflict in Kashmir could become a battleground for U.S.-China competition, with India potentially backed by the U.S. and Pakistan supported by China. The recent withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan has reduced Washington’s reliance on Pakistan, shifting the dynamics of the region.

The Kashmir conflict is not just a matter between India and Pakistan, but has broader implications that could impact neighboring countries like Afghanistan, Iran, and China. The potential dismantling of Pakistan could have far-reaching consequences, particularly for China, which has made significant investments in the region.

In response to a terrorist attack in Kashmir that killed 26 people, India launched retaliatory strikes against Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has vowed a strong response, raising concerns about further escalation.

The Pakistani military, which wields significant influence in the country, is likely to push for a forceful response to avoid any perception of weakness. However, a humiliating defeat could weaken the military’s grip on the country and embolden separatist groups in regions like Balochistan and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa.

While the immediate focus for India is targeting terrorists and avoiding civilian casualties, Pakistan will need to maintain an anti-Indian stance to appease domestic pressures. The conflict could strain the already fragile relationship between the military and civilian government in Pakistan.

The biggest fear for many is the risk of inadvertent escalation between two nuclear-armed powers. With India and Pakistan possessing a combined 342 nuclear warheads, there is a real concern about the potential for a catastrophic outcome.

As the situation in Kashmir continues to unfold, the international community, including President Donald Trump, has expressed a desire to see a peaceful resolution. The involvement of major global powers like the U.S. and China underscores the stakes involved and the need for careful diplomacy to prevent further escalation.