Liberals on course to take majority of N.S. seats, polls and experts agree

The recent provincial election in Nova Scotia saw a near wipeout of the Liberal party, but as the federal election approaches, a very different outcome is expected. Public opinion polls and political experts are predicting that the federal Liberals could secure most of the 11 seats up for grabs in Nova Scotia.

Meredith Ralston, a professor of political studies at Mount Saint Vincent University, described the shift in fortunes as an “extraordinary case study” for future politics classes. The change in Liberal leadership and the influence of U.S. President Donald Trump on Canadian politics are seen as key factors in this turnaround.

Local issues are also playing a role in shaping the election outcome in Nova Scotia. Tom Urbaniak, a professor of political science at Cape Breton University, highlighted the fisheries industry as a factor favoring the Conservatives in certain ridings. He also noted the appeal of Conservative candidate Allan MacMaster in Cape Breton-Canso-Antigonish.

Poll aggregators project that the Liberals are favored in eight of Nova Scotia’s ridings, with the remaining three either leaning Conservative or considered a toss-up. This aligns with the pre-election status where the Liberals held seven seats, the Conservatives held three, and one seat was vacant.

While many expect a strong showing for the Liberals in Nova Scotia, there is a hope to avoid a complete sweep, as seen in the 2015 election. Acadia University Prof. Alex Marland emphasized the importance of having representation from Atlantic Canada in the national parties’ caucuses.

Despite the Liberal advantage, Conservatives in Nova Scotia are still running competitive campaigns. Urbaniak noted that the Conservative campaigns in Cape Breton are energized, with volunteers canvassing neighborhoods and distributing campaign materials.

However, some Conservative candidates have been reluctant to engage in traditional campaign activities, declining interview requests and skipping candidate forums and debates. This approach has been criticized as a strategy that makes them appear inaccessible and lacking a team dynamic.

The NDP’s decline in Nova Scotia is also a significant aspect of the election. While the party is not expected to win any seats, their collapse is noted as part of the election narrative. In some ridings, such as Halifax, NDP candidates like Lisa Roberts are facing tough competition from the Liberals.

As the federal election approaches, the political landscape in Nova Scotia is shaping up to be a battleground between the Liberals and Conservatives, with the NDP facing challenges. The outcome of the election will not only impact the representation from Nova Scotia but also contribute to the broader political landscape in Canada.