Tuesday’s special elections in Virginia could give early insight into governor race, 2026 midterms

A trio of special elections taking place in Virginia on Tuesday will provide valuable insights into suburban voting trends ahead of the 2025 gubernatorial sweeps and the 2026 midterms. These elections are particularly significant as they follow a federal election shakeup in Loudoun County, which has traditionally been a deep-red stronghold but has now been trending blue in recent years.

Loudoun County, located halfway between Charles Town, West Virginia, and Washington, D.C., has seen a shift in demographics due to exurban sprawl from liberal Washingtonians moving into the area. This has led to national controversies over transgender policies and in-school assaults, making it a focal point for political observers.

The recent upset of former U.S. Rep. Bob Good in Lynchburg has set the stage for a third special election, with Democrats currently holding a slim majority in the Virginia state Senate. With Republican Glenn Youngkin serving as governor, these special elections will be closely watched to gauge the political landscape in the state.

In the Loudoun races, Democrats are favored to win, but Republicans are hoping to make a strong showing in these typically low-turnout affairs. Youngkin’s performance in blue counties like Loudoun played a crucial role in his upset victory in the 2021 gubernatorial race, and the GOP is looking to replicate that success in the upcoming elections.

If Republicans manage to win both the Senate and delegate seats in Loudoun, they could potentially shift control of the chamber in their favor. This would have significant implications for the balance of power in Richmond, giving the GOP full control not seen since the George W. Bush era.

Youngkin expressed confidence in the Republican candidates running in the special elections, highlighting their commitment to conservative values and key issues like tax relief, public safety, and parental involvement in education. The candidates include Tumay Harding, Ram Venkatachalam, and others who are aiming to provide strong representation for Loudoun County in Richmond.

In Southside Virginia, a heavily Republican state Senate district is up for grabs following the election of Rep.-elect John McGuire to Congress. Democrat Jack Trammell is facing off against Republican Luther Cifers in this district, which covers a diverse mix of Richmond exurbs, Civil War sites, and agricultural lands.

Cifers, a non-politician who believes in citizen participation in government, is favored to win based on historical data. Trammell, on the other hand, is actively engaging with voters across the district to build support for his campaign.

Overall, these special elections in Virginia will serve as a barometer for the political climate in the state and provide valuable insights into suburban voting trends ahead of the upcoming gubernatorial and midterm elections. The results of these races could have far-reaching implications for the balance of power in Richmond and set the stage for future political developments in the state.