How exit polls work and what they will tell us on election night

Exit polls are an essential tool for understanding voter behavior and opinions during an election. Conducted by Edison Research for the National Election Pool on behalf of media companies like CNN, ABC, CBS, and NBC, exit polls provide valuable insights into who voted for whom, the issues that influenced their decisions, and the overall demographic profile of voters.

On Election Day, interviewers are stationed outside polling locations across the country to survey a randomly selected sample of voters as they exit the voting booths. This data helps to paint a picture of how different groups of people voted and their attitudes towards key campaign issues. The early results from exit polls are typically reported after 5 p.m. ET, but data that could predict the outcome of a race is withheld until after the polls have closed.

In addition to capturing the views of Election Day voters, exit polls also include early in-person voters, absentee voters, and those who voted by mail. Traditional pre-election surveys are used to reach these voters, ensuring a comprehensive representation of the electorate.

Exit polls are not limited to national surveys; specific states with competitive races also conduct exit polls to gather insights into voter behavior. States like Arizona, Georgia, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin are included in this year’s state-specific exit polls.

Interviews conducted as part of exit polls consist of 20 to 25 questions and take around five minutes to complete. Respondents can fill out paper surveys, answer questions online, or speak to live interviewers over the phone. The anonymity of each voter’s responses is maintained throughout the process.

Overall, exit polls provide a comprehensive understanding of voter demographics and political views during an election. While they serve as valuable estimates, it’s important to note that they are still polls with margins for error. The findings from exit polls are eventually compared against the final election results to gauge their accuracy.

As we await the results of this year’s exit polls, it’s clear that they will play a crucial role in analyzing the outcome of the election and understanding the electorate’s sentiments.