Automakers want Canada to scrap its EV sales mandate. What would that do to emissions?

During a recent meeting between Prime Minister Mark Carney and automotive sector CEOs, one of the key topics of discussion was the government’s zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate. This mandate requires a certain percentage of light duty vehicles to be either fully electric vehicles or plug-in hybrids, starting at 20 per cent in 2026 and increasing to 100 per cent by 2035. Brian Kingston, president and CEO of the Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers’ Association, expressed concerns about the feasibility of meeting these targets given current market conditions.

The transportation sector is a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions in Canada, with passenger vehicles alone accounting for about 12 per cent of emissions in 2023. The ZEV mandate is part of Canada’s strategy to accelerate the adoption of electric vehicles and reduce emissions in the transportation sector. However, there are challenges to overcome, such as the availability of electric vehicles in many parts of the country.

One of the main goals of the ZEV mandate is to increase the adoption of electric vehicles by making them more readily available to consumers. By setting sales targets for manufacturers and offering incentives for meeting those targets, the mandate aims to shift the market towards electric vehicles. This could potentially lead to lower prices for EVs as manufacturers focus more on electric vehicles and increase their production.

In terms of emissions reduction, the ZEV mandate is projected to have a significant impact by 2050, cutting Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions by roughly eight per cent compared to a scenario without the mandate. While other policies such as government subsidies for EV charging infrastructure and rebates for EV purchases can also help reduce emissions, the ZEV mandate is seen as a more effective tool for encouraging manufacturers to prioritize electric vehicles.

There are differing opinions on the cost-effectiveness of the ZEV mandate compared to other policies like carbon taxes. While some argue that the mandate could be more expensive per tonne of carbon abated, others believe that the long-term benefits of reducing emissions through increased EV adoption outweigh the costs. Additionally, the availability of cheaper EVs from markets like China could potentially lessen the impact of the mandate on emissions reduction.

Overall, the ZEV mandate plays a crucial role in Canada’s efforts to combat climate change and decarbonize the transportation sector. By encouraging the adoption of electric vehicles and reducing greenhouse gas emissions from passenger vehicles, the mandate is a key component of the country’s strategy to transition to a more sustainable transportation system.